Google predicts the next US President is…

In the first part of this article, we looked to Google Insights and Google Trends for just that: insight into who might be the next President of the United States. Today, the day before the election, we look at the current results using both tools.

First, a lot of people ask me, “What’s the difference between Google Insights and Google Trends?” Great question. The difference may seem subtle at first, however they are quite different. Essentially, I note Insights as “Trends 2.0.” The data described is over time and both are “scaled and normalized.” as Google notes it:

The numbers on the graph reflect how many searches have been done for a particular term, relative to the total number of searches done on Google over time. They don’t represent absolute search volume numbers, because the data is normalized and presented on a scale from 0-100; each point on the graph is divided by the highest point, or 100. The numbers next to the search terms above the graph are summaries, or totals.

You’ll note that Trends gives you news articles, which I like to use as a barometer of sorts to reflect why a particular rise in searches may have taken place.

Insights, however, focuses more on relative searches: what other terms a searcher may have been searching for and their “trends” in search volume.

To get a better idea, take a look at these examples of the same request comparing Baraack Obama to John McCain using the two tools.

Google Trends: (click image to enlarge)

Google Insights: (click image to enlarge)

We’ll take a closer look at both of these in future posts. For now, let’s get back to the question at hand: who’s really leading in the elections according to Google. Using blue for Obama and red for McCain, you’ll note a dramatic rise in searches for Obama since mid-September, yet a slight rise or John McCain. However searches remain far higher for Obama, with a recent steep climb mid-October. 

Based on this data, Google predicts the next President of the United States is…Barack Obama.

Regardless of what search volume tells you, Google does not participate in the Electoral College. Get out there and vote on the 4th.

This entry was posted on Monday, November 3rd, 2008 at 7:00 am and is filed under Internet Marketing, Geek Stuff, Trends. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.