Last week we explored how search trends recorded by Google may be a good predictor of our next US President. And Google’s trends were correct: Barack Obama was the winner.

Taken from the “I saw it on the news at 5:00 this morning over coffee” category, Google’s user’s search habits are being used as a predictor of flu outbreaks. Google touts the following on their Outbreak page…

We’ve found that certain search terms are good indicators of flu activity. Google Flu Trends uses aggregated Google search data to estimate flu activity in your state up to two weeks faster than traditional systems.

People are increasingly jumping on the web with symptoms before contacting their doctor. So what’s up with this aching, runny nose, stuffy head feeling I have coming on? Let’s check Google and see…to the tune of 75% of Internet users polled between October and December of 2007 according to the Pew Internet Project.

With trends, it’s all about timing. A rise in search terms indicates an increased interest. A fall would indicate decreasing interest. There wouldn’t be mass numbers of people searching for flu-related terms in the middle of summer, for instance, as that’s not a typical time for the flu. Watching trends on a regular basis will help you to see where the rises are and prepare accordingly.

Trends are a huge factor in seasonal topics. If your business is trend-oriented, you should keep an eye on what Google’s data shows.

Paging Doctor Google…it hurts when I do this…

Talk about a 180. Yahoo’s CEO Jerry Yang spoke at the Web 2.0 Summit in San Francisco; he and his company are tired, battered and bruised. But his message is now - suddenly, and amazingly - clear: Yahoo wants to be bought by Microsoft.

His exact words?

“To this day, I have to say that the best thing for Microsoft to do is to buy Yahoo. I don’t think that is a bad idea at all…at the right price, whatever the price is, we are willing to sell the company. We were ready to negotiate, we wanted to negotiate a deal, and we felt that we weren’t that far apart. But at the end of the day, they withdrew and they since have been very clear about not wanting to buy the company.”  

Read full article >>

In the first part of this article, we looked to Google Insights and Google Trends for just that: insight into who might be the next President of the United States. Today, the day before the election, we look at the current results using both tools.

First, a lot of people ask me, “What’s the difference between Google Insights and Google Trends?” Great question. The difference may seem subtle at first, however they are quite different. Essentially, I note Insights as “Trends 2.0.” The data described is over time and both are “scaled and normalized.” as Google notes it:

The numbers on the graph reflect how many searches have been done for a particular term, relative to the total number of searches done on Google over time. They don’t represent absolute search volume numbers, because the data is normalized and presented on a scale from 0-100; each point on the graph is divided by the highest point, or 100. The numbers next to the search terms above the graph are summaries, or totals.

You’ll note that Trends gives you news articles, which I like to use as a barometer of sorts to reflect why a particular rise in searches may have taken place.

Insights, however, focuses more on relative searches: what other terms a searcher may have been searching for and their “trends” in search volume.

To get a better idea, take a look at these examples of the same request comparing Baraack Obama to John McCain using the two tools.

Google Trends: (click image to enlarge)

Google Insights: (click image to enlarge)

We’ll take a closer look at both of these in future posts. For now, let’s get back to the question at hand: who’s really leading in the elections according to Google. Using blue for Obama and red for McCain, you’ll note a dramatic rise in searches for Obama since mid-September, yet a slight rise or John McCain. However searches remain far higher for Obama, with a recent steep climb mid-October. 

Based on this data, Google predicts the next President of the United States is…Barack Obama.

Regardless of what search volume tells you, Google does not participate in the Electoral College. Get out there and vote on the 4th.

We use Google Insights and Google Trends to test phrases when other data doesn’t provide us with the clear results we were hoping for. So I wondered, does the all knowing Google - the barometer of life as we know it, the voyeur into our wants and needs - know what’s on America’s mind? Can Google provide us with the “real poll” of who people are leaning towards in the November elections?

So I took a look…and interesting results came through.

The above image shows the search volume since 2004. Blue indicates searches for Barack Obama, red indicates John McCain. There’s an interesting peak in 2004 for Obama - likely around the time of the Democratic convention. The pattern throughout shows a higher level of results for Obama than McCain, up until this month… Click for current results.

Zooming in to 2008, we see another story emerging.

The trends are looking much more similar, with both peaking to similar levels between the end of August and the beginning of September. Current trends show them both dipping and coming to a point very close together at the current date. Which is what most current polls say, post debate.
Click for current results.

We will continue to watch this, and in a future installment, look at search terms and news events that reflect similar patterns.

There’s a huge value to this, and something we at Single Throw discuss all the time. Google - and search in general - provides real insight into people. It allows us to look over a person’s shoulder and gain quantitative data into what they want and need. We’re not asking the questions - they are.